BRISBANE HEAT CASE STUDY: Part 2 – Big Show must go on

Following Brisbane Heat’s somewhat disappointing 29-run loss to Sydney Thunder at the Gabba, the team had just three days to bounce back against the Melbourne Stars at Carrara Stadium (known commercially as Metricon Stadium). No doubt the loss was discouraging, especially after the team had shown patches of promise in their opening match, but the Big Bash League’s longer 14-game season allowed plenty of opportunity for the Heat to make an improvement in their performance.

Before the game even began however, they had a few things going against them. For starters, the Heat had yet to win a game at their second home ground on the Gold Coast. Last season, they slumped to narrow losses against both Hobart Hurricanes and Sydney Sixers after they had held the ascendency on both occasions. Meanwhile, the Stars triumphed over the Thunder at the same venue.

The other problem was that having taken a short break from cricket, T20 superstar Glenn Maxwell was set to make his return for the Melbourne Stars. In Maxwell, the Stars would be boasting a significantly beefed up squad compared to that of last season when Ben Cutting (81 off 30 balls) and Max Bryant (71 off 30 balls) pounded 158 from just 10 overs to win in a canter the last time the two teams met.

Like the Heat, Camp Melbourne had been busy recruiting during the 2019 off-season and had acquired both Hilton Cartwright and Nathan Coulter-Nile from Perth Scorchers. They were also able to retain the services of prominent players such as Marcus Stoinis, Ben Dunk and Nepalese leg spinner Sandeep Lamichhane. However, and perhaps luckily for Brisbane, the Stars’ number one recruit, South African quick Dale Steyn boasting 439 Test wickets, was sidelined with a side strain. He had been replaced last-minute by Pakistani paceman Haris Rauf who had been playing Premier Cricket in Tasmania.

Between this game and the last, the Heat retained the same squad of 13 players that took on Sydney Thunder. For this game though, wicketkeeper James Peirson made the starting XI ahead of fast bowler Mark Steketee and would take the gloves instead of Tom Banton. This came almost as a surprise considering Steketee’s figures of 1-37 off four overs with the ball and watchful 15 off 17 balls with the bat on a night where he outscored batsmen Max Bryant, Chris Lynn and Sam Heazlett.

Game 2: Melbourne Stars (20/12/2019)

Glenn Maxwell 83 v Brisbane Heat (Getty Images)

Melbourne Stars captain Glenn Maxwell made 83 off 39 balls to lift his team to 6-167 in a fine return to cricket // Getty Images

Despite losing their last game by 29 runs when they were asked to bat second, Heat captain Chris Lynn won the toss and voluntarily elected to field first in front of 11,969 fans at Metricon Stadium. Batting second has quickly become the preferred option in the BBL since a team batting second knows how many runs they need to reach its target, while the team batting must first estimate a reasonable target to set. On this occasion, Lynn was proven wise in his choice as the Heat bowlers again started strongly.

Key Moment 1 – Opening Heat bowlers leave formidable Stars reeling

With the new ball in hand again, Josh Lalor started well for Brisbane against Nic Maddinson until a thumping six over deep backward square leg spoilt an otherwise superb over. Normally a batsman, Matthew Renshaw was handed the ball for the second over of the game. Marcus Stoinis managed just a single off the first four balls of the over before Maddinson backed away and tried to drive the first ball he faced from Renshaw to the off-side. Unfortunately for Maddinson, he succeeded only in mis-timing it straight into the hands of Josh Lalor at backward point to give Brisbane the perfect start.

Lalor was in the thick of the action again as he removed first drop Hilton Cartwright for 18 to leave Melbourne Stars at 2-42 after the powerplay scoring at just 7 runs per over. Stoinis joined him in the dugout not long after him for just 16 when he skied a drive high into the air to give Sam Heazlett his fourth catch of the season, but not before he was gifted a boundary courtesy of a Mitchell Swepson mis-field on the boundary.

With wickets coming regularly and the Heat bowlers applying pressure with tight lines and lengths, Glenn Maxwell joined Peter Handscomb in the middle and they set to work rebuilding the innings. With everything going the Heat’s way though, this partnership did not last long. Non-striker Maxwell tried to pinch a single to wicketkeeper James Peirson following an inside edge off Handscomb’s bat. A swift removal of his glove allowed Peirson a shy at the stumps down the non-striker’s end and he coolly took it, gunning down Handscomb for 20 and leaving the Stars reeling at 4-75 at the halfway stage (7.5 rpo).

Key Moment 2 – Sharp chance to remove Maxi triggers game change

With the first ball of his third over, and just the second delivery following the Handscomb run out, Afghani spinner Zahir Khan served up a juicy full toss outside off stump to Glenn Maxwell. Maxwell slammed it down the ground towards long off. Ben Laughlin ran to his right, leapt and flew to his right with arms extended. The 37-year-old got his hands on the ball and nearly took the catch of the summer, but couldn’t hold on as the ball trickled into the boundary.

Cricket Australia’s ‘Fair Play’ data analysis system categorises fielding efforts into three grades, depending on the difficulty involved. Grade 1 counts for the most straightforward of chances while Grade 3 is the most difficult to complete, a one-handed diving grab for example. With this in mind, anyone watching the vision can definitively state that the opportunity afforded to Laughlin was at least Grade 2, or 3. That is to say the only reason this became an opportunity in the first place was because of Laughlin’s anticipation, speed to the ball, and sheer athleticism.

You can’t fault Laughlin for trying and failing. His effort alone is all the more impressive given his age. Be that as it may, the Heat missed their one opportunity to remove Maxwell for just 12 and have the Stars at 5-75 and looking at a score of 140-150. Instead, Laughlin himself finally dismissed Maxwell with two balls remaining in the innings when the right-hander played onto his stumps. The damage was already done. Maxwell’s inspired 83 off just 39 balls lifted the Stars beyond 160 with the dropped catch costing the Heat a whopping 71 runs.

Key Moment 3 – One-man Big Show lifts Stars into the stratosphere

With the score at 4-75 after 10 overs, Glenn Maxwell launched. Following Laughlin’s dropped catch Maxwell elevated the run rate to 10.5 rpo between the 11th and 14th overs until Ben Dunk departed for 11 at a run per ball, interestingly caught by Ben Laughlin. Clint Hinchliffe came and left while Adam Zampa would only contribute 5 runs at a strike rate of 55.55, leaving all the pressure on Maxwell to make the runs.

As his teammates struggled with rhythm, Maxwell continued to find the boundary and flummox the Heat bowlers as he smashed 67 off just 32 balls at 209.38 in the overs following his earlier lifeline. His precise footwork against the spin combination of Zahir Khan and Mitchell Swepson was on full display as he crunched 33 off just 17 balls against Brisbane’s spin twins. The 31-year-old equalled his fastest BBL half-century on his way to 83 off just 39 balls, which made up 49.7 percent of Melbourne Stars’ final tally. Peter Handscomb’s 20 remained the second-highest score. Additionally, he scored runs from 33 of the 39 balls he faced at a scoring shot percentage of 84.6.

Match 2 Heat v Stars - Maxwell's impact chart

This chart demonstrates the impact Glenn Maxwell had on the game. As we can see, Maxwell (blue) scored 49.7 percent of the Melbourne Stars runs at 212.82 in just 32.5 percent of the 20 overs // Viper Cricket Statistics

Brisbane Heat’s death bowling again let them down, not to the extent of the previous game against the Thunder but, the Stars were still able to hit 49 off the last 5 overs at 9.8 rpo to finish their innings at 7-167. Each of the six Heat bowlers took one wicket each as Zahir Khan finished with an economy rate of 7.25 rpo, the lowest of all (aside from Matthew Renshaw’s one over). Fellow spinner Mitchell Swepson finished with the highest economy rate (9.25 rpo), a stark contrast to the last game where he took 2-11 at 5.50 rpo.

Key Moment 4 – Banton undeterred by Rauf’s flying start

Daniel Worrall began the second innings by giving up just 3 runs in the opening over, but Englishman Tom Banton made sure it didn’t stay that way. Beginning with just the second ball of spin he’s ever faced in the BBL, Banton went after Sandeep Lamichhane and swatted 15 off 4 balls from the Nepalese leg spinner. Max Bryant added another four before the over’s end to take the score to 0-22 after two overs.

Bryant’s stay at the crease was again brief as Pakistan’s Haris Rauf made the perfect start to his BBL career with Bryant caught down the leg-side off his first delivery. Banton was left unfazed by Bryant’s dismissal and struck four more boundaries, including two consecutive fours against Adam Zampa, during the powerplay as the Heat looked on track at 1-57. When the 21-year-old notched up a 29-ball fifty in style with a pull shot six over deep mid-wicket in Zampa’s second over, he had scored 36 runs off 17 balls of leg spin. However, the leg spinner would get his revenge soon enough.

Key Moment 5 – Brisbane Heat stumble at halfway mark

Just three balls after Tom Banton brought up his maiden BBL half-century, Chris Lynn fell cheaply when he came down the track against Adam Zampa and picked out Ben Dunk at long on. Not the best batting by the captain considering Banton was playing so well and Lynn was back in the dugout for just 6 off 9 balls. Banton soon followed him though for a well-made 64 off 36 balls when he gave Zampa a second wicket, and Dunk a second catch. Banton scored 64 of the Heat’s first 81 runs and his wicket left the match evenly poised.

Two fresh batsmen, Matthew Renshaw and Ben Cutting, struggled to score freely against Melbourne Stars’ spin bowlers and Haris Rauf made life difficult for Cutting when his second over – the 11th overall – went for just one run. The pair added just 19 runs off 25 balls for the fourth wicket as the Heat scored at just 5 rpo between and went almost five overs without a boundary mid-innings. When Cutting gave Dunk a hat trick of catches on 12 in the 14th over, Brisbane Heat were 4-100 and in search of 68 off 39 balls at 10.8 rpo.

Key Moment 6 – Renshaw given no help in wicket procession

Matthew Renshaw began strong by reverse sweeping the first delivery after Ben Cutting’s dismissal for four over third man. He also helped the Heat take 12 off the next over, bowled by Glenn Maxwell, with a six and a four to close out what was otherwise a good over for the Stars. With a final scoring shot percentage of 73.3, Renshaw kept Brisbane Heat in the game with some impressive strokeplay and running between the wickets.

Melbourne Stars captain Maxwell rotated his bowlers to perfection and ensured the Heat batsmen couldn’t find any continuity. Sam Heazlett edged behind for just 4 to give Adam Zampa (3-30) his third wicket as no batsman after him added more than five runs. Renshaw fought hard for his 39 off 30 balls, but was eventually bowled when he tried to ramp Daniel Worrall (2-21). His four off Maxwell was the last Brisbane Heat would score as the team added just 27 and failed to hit a single boundary during the last five overs with Haris Rauf (2-20 off 4 overs) sealing the deal, the Heat finishing with 8-145.

WHERE THE GAME WAS LOST

On this night out at the Gold Coast, the point at which the game was lost is twofold. We already mentioned above in detail that Glenn Maxwell was on just 12 when he was dropped by Ben Laughlin. A fantastic diving effort from the 37-year-old only became an opportunity through anticipation and sheer athleticism, so no fault on Laughlin’s part, but it was a moment that would have left Melbourne Stars at 5-75 and Ben Dunk (11 off 11) batting with Clint Hinchliffe (0 off 6).

Despite the fact that the dropped catch cost the Heat a total of 71 runs, there’s a certain point at which you just have to accept that Glenn Maxwell had a day out with the bat and there was nothing the Brisbane Heat bowlers could do about it. It truly was a captain’s knock, an outlier of a performance if you will. In fact, Maxwell’s whirlwind knock of 83 off just 39 balls actually is a mathematical outlier.

In statistics, an outlier is an extremely high or extremely low value. We determine extreme by being 1.5 times the interquartile range above Q3 or below Q1. That’s a little bit complicated for anyone that does not have a detailed knowledge of such a topic but, don’t worry. We’ve done the maths for you. In short, since Peter Handscomb’s 20 remained the second-highest score by a Melbourne Stars batsman (and nobody else scored above 20) an extremely high outlier would be any score higher than 37.5. Maxwell’s 83 runs are more than double that on its own and actually equates to 5 times the interquartile range above Q3. Tom Banton and Matthew Renshaw’s innings’ are also outliers amongst the Brisbane Heat.

The second point at which the game was lost was Brisbane Heat’s batting innings. Save for Adam Zampa, the Heat’s batsman saw a major improvement in their ability to play spin. Sandeep Lamichhane went at 9.50 rpo while both Glenn Maxwell and Clint Hinchliffe leaked 10 or more runs from one over each. Brisbane’s record against spin and seam bowling was almost reversed that of the Sydney Thunder game with figures of 4-104 at 8.67 rpo from 12 overs of spin compared to 4-41 at 5.13 rpo off 8 overs of seam.

Haris Rauf made a serious first impression with the ball while Daniel Worrall’s unbroken pressure, at a dot ball percentage of 45.8, meant that the Heat were forced to take extra risks against the spinners. Maxwell rotated his bowlers to perfection with six different bowlers bowling the six overs between the 14th and 19th overs which ensured the Heat batsmen couldn’t find any continuity. No boundaries were scored from two overs of Nic Maddinson and only three were scored between Rauf and Worrall, the same as Ben Cutting by himself. This would prove to be the difference between the two sides.

OTHER FACTS & FIGURES

Ben Dunk took three great catches and got his hands on the ball a total of 13 times. He finished the innings with just 4.3 touches per dismissal with 23 percent of all his touches resulting in a wicket.
The highest partnership of the match was shared between Glenn Maxwell and Adam Zampa. Maxwell scored 40 of the 47 runs (85.1%) off just 20 balls.
Glenn Maxwell and Tom Banton were the only batsmen to pass fifty runs and Matthew Renshaw was the only other batsman, out of nineteen, to score more than 20 runs.
The pull shot was the most productive shot utilised by both Glenn Maxwell and Tom Banton. Between them, the pair made 42 runs from the pull shot including two fours and five sixes.

SUMMARY

Brisbane Heat’s opening bowlers applied pressure early on with tight lines and lengths and had the Melbourne Stars at 4-75 after 10 overs. Enter Glenn Maxwell. Staring down the barrel of a total between 140 and 150, Maxwell almost single-handedly lead Melbourne Stars at 9.2 rpo during the last 10 overs, and 9.8 rpo during the last five, to lift his side to 167. This proved to be too much for Brisbane Heat’s batters.

Bowling at the death again let Brisbane Heat down slightly, but it was a great improvement. Meanwhile, English import Tom Banton was left to chase down 168 runs almost on his own as the rest of the Brisbane Heat lineup, with the exception of Matthew Renshaw, stalled for the second time in two matches. The Brisbane Heat management did a great job of recruiting in the off-season, but the cracks are already showing. T20 superstar AB de Villiers is set to join the Heat later in the season as a replacement for Banton, but neither of them are a “one-man solution” for the team’s problems. A change has to come from their home grown players, especially when a bout of illness prevents Banton from playing the Heat’s third game of the season against the Sydney Sixers…

More to come…

CASE STUDY: What the heck happened to the Brisbane Heat? – Part 1

Blog, Case Study

The Brisbane Heat seemed like the team to beat in the 2019-20 edition of the Big Bash League. Having previously coached the team to Big Bash glory in 2012-13, Darren Lehmann returned to coach the team after a spell as coach of the Australian national cricket team.

Lehmann had coached the Australian team to Ashes wins and a World Cup win since then, but he had been forced resigned an Australian coach in the wake of the Cape Town ball-tampering scandal. Lehmann was – and is – a proven winner. If anyone could take Brisbane Heat back to their winning ways, it would surely be the man that got them there in the first place.

Brisbane’s record in the Big Bash is mortifying. Their success in the 2012-13 final against the Perth Scorchers remains their most recent knockout win. They were the only team not to have played multiple finals matches between 2013 and 2017.

The desire for reinvention this season was essential for the team after four largely disappointing seasons and the departures of former coach Daniel Vettori and legendary batsman Brendon McCullum.

Behind the scenes, batsman Alex Ross and fast bowler Brendan Doggett created holes in the squad after both accepted a move to the Sydney Thunder, but the Heat worked hard and recruited well during the off-season. 18-year-old off spinner Mujeeb Ur Rahman was set to return to the Heat along with new international signings Zahir Khan and Tom Banton.

Brisbane Heat had also managed to poach death bowling specialist Ben Laughlin from the Adelaide Strikers and, somehow, recruit former South African limited overs captain AB de Villiers. De Villiers is regarded as one of the greatest batsmen of all time and he, along with established Heat stars Chris Lynn, Joe Burns, Matthew Renshaw, James Pattinson and Ben Cutting would form a crucial part of the batting lineup.

With so much promise emanating from the team’s 20-man squad, the only way was up. Lehmann leading this team had the earmarks of success. So how, after just two months of competition, did the Brisbane Heat’s 2019-20 BBL campaign come crashing down so swiftly? How did it all go so wrong?

We are going to look at every game the Heat played this summer and break them down in order to try and pinpoint where each match was won or lost. By looking at the numbers, we can look at individual and team performances, as well as key moments in a much more in-depth manner. Prepare yourself for a lot of crazy numbers.

Game 1: Sydney Thunder (17/12/2019)

Callum Ferguson slugs one into the leg side -- Getty Images

Sydney Thunder captain Callum Ferguson made 73 not out off 44 balls to lift his team to 6-172 in the opening match of the 2019-20 Big Bash League // Getty Images

Sydney Thunder won the toss and elected to bat when they came up to the Gabba to face Brisbane Heat in the opening match of the 2019-20 Big Bash League. That proved to be a splendid idea as Usman Khawaja hit Josh Lalor for two fours in his first three balls.

Key Moment 1 – Lalor denied Khawaja wicket: Lalor fired back on his fourth ball and had Khawaja trapped in front with a brilliant length ball that was hitting the middle of middle stump. The umpire shook his head, perhaps believing that Khawaja had got a little inside edge but, replays showed otherwise. The 2019-20 BBL season was just four balls old and the Heat had already missed out on a wicket. This would ultimately cost them 14 runs as Khawaja went on to score three more boundaries on his way to 22 off 13 balls, striking at 169.23.

Lalor finally got his man in his second over, the third of the match, as Khawaja top edged a hook shot to fine leg that was smartly caught by Sam Heazlett. Heazlett was everywhere in the field and added two more catches to his tally as the Thunder slipped to 3-38 after five overs.

Key Moment 2 – Ferguson and Ross partnership: With the Thunder reeling at 3-44 after the powerplay, former Brisbane Heat player Alex Ross joined Sydney Thunder captain Callum Ferguson at the crease. The pair put on 63 off 50 balls, striking at 126, for the fourth wicket in what would prove to be a crucial partnership.

Sydney Thunder’s run rate was 7.60 when the pair came together despite losing three wickets inside the powerplay. Over the next 8 overs, the pair were able to maintain a run rate of 7.88 before Alex Ross was caught for 30 off 27 balls trying to reverse sweep Heat leg spinner Mitchell Swepson in the 14th over.

Key Moment 3 – Brisbane Heat death bowling: Having just dismissed Ross, Mitchell Swepson bowled Daniel Sams with a perfectly pitched googly to put himself on a hat-trick. This should have seen a momentum shift in the game for the Heat. Instead, Ferguson launched an assault of 31 runs off 16 balls at a strike rate of 193.75‬ in the final five overs and finished with 73 not out off just 44 balls. He was the only batsman to score more than 30 runs for the entire match.

Batting with spinner Chris Green, the pair combined in another crucial partnership of 42 runs off 28 balls at a strike rate of 150. Green hit two fours and a six on his way to 25 off just 17 balls which allowed the Thunder reach a final score of 6-172 as Brisbane Heat’s seam bowlers conceded 51 runs off the final four overs at 12.8 runs per over.

Brisbane Heat’s bowlers could consider themselves unlucky with 21 of those 51 runs (41.2%) coming from a total of five top, thick and inside edges. An additional four byes were also recorded when a good Ben Laughlin off cutter spun past wicketkeeper Tom Banton to the boundary. Nevertheless, the Thunder scored around 15-20 more runs than they should have done off the final four overs with even 10 rpo during that period enough to restrict them to a chasable 161.

Key Moment 4 – Tom Banton’s opening over blitz: Needing to score an unimposing 8.65 runs per over, Heat opener Tom Banton began his BBL career by innocuously shouldering arms to Daniel Sams’ first ball. He must’ve liked what he saw of Sams though as he hit two sixes over deep midwicket and a four to give the Heat 0-17 off the first over.

Banton was keen for runs and couldn’t resist the urge to advance Jono Cook off the first ball he faced from the spinner. Unfortunately for the Englishman, and the Heat, he was only successful in flicking the ball to Nathan McAndrew at deep mid wicket. Banton’s blitz of 16 off 7 balls at 228.57 had come to an abrupt end with the Heat now 1-18.

Key Moment 5 – Scoreboard pressure and lack of partnerships: Slow starts for Max Bryant (11 off 10 balls) and Chris Lynn (9 off 9 balls) meant the Heat scored at just 5.8 rpo between the second and sixth overs. Both players returned to the dressing room in consecutive overs to leave the Heat in a similar position to the Thunder after the powerplay with the score at 3-46. In fact, the match was so close at one stage that both teams were 3-53 after seven overs, scoring at 7.57 rpo.

Unlike how Ferguson and Ross were able to maintain the run rate however, the Thunder’s spinners Chris Green, Arjun Nair and Cook applied the brakes as Sam Heazlett and Matthew Renshaw struggled to score above 7 runs per over. Heazlett was eventually caught at long on by Alex Hales for just 12 off 12 balls when he tried to slog sweep Nair while Renshaw fell for 26 off 24 balls, also trying to slog sweep a spinner.

Key Moment 6 – Ben Cutting’s last stand: Left batting with fast bowler Mark Steketee, Ben Cutting was the top-scorer for the Heat with 28 off 18 balls, striking at 155.55, which included two fours and two sixes. Cutting helped the Heat score at 8.6 rpo during the 7.2 overs he spent at the crease and, almost single-handedly, scored at 9.2 rpo from the 13th over until he was finally bowled by Daniel Sams in the 17th over.

Whereas Sydney Thunder scored 51 runs off the final four overs, Brisbane Heat lost 5-32 in the final five overs as the team limped to 143 all out off 19.2 overs. Steketee should have been out for just 1, but escaped being caught on the boundary when Nathan McAndrew touched the rope with his heel. Wickets fell in procession after Steketee was bowled by Green for 15 with Josh Lalor running himself out just two balls later. Cutting was all set to launch and hit two sixes off Daniel Sams before he too, was bowled. With the rest of the tail cleaned up easily, Sydney Thunder took a comfortable win by 29 runs.

Heat v Thunder Expected Score Chart_002 -- Viper Cricket Statistics

This chart plots the expected score each team would make based on their run rates at the conclusion of each over. Key moments of the match have also been highlighted // Viper Cricket Statistics

WHERE THE GAME WAS LOST – Spin to win

Each team’s ability to utilise their spin bowlers proved to be the key difference between the two teams. At a venue known for providing assistance to the quicker bowlers, it is vital for teams to make the most of their spin bowling options.

Having just dismissed Alex Ross in the 14th over, Mitchell Swepson bowled Daniel Sams with a perfectly pitched googly to put himself on a hat-trick. Sams was playing for the leg break, but the ball spun the other way through the wide open gate and crashed into the stumps.

Swepson’s googlies, or wrong ‘uns, were an effective weapon against the Thunder on this night with the Thunder batsmen only able to score 2 runs from the 5 googlies he bowled, striking at 40. The 26-year-old finished with figures of 2-11 off just two overs, conceding just one boundary.

His length was also key. Of all the deliveries Swepson bowled, seven of them (or 58.3%) were either half volley or good length balls with the Thunder batsmen only able to score 3 runs off deliveries of that kind – a strike rate of 42.86.

When Swepson dropped shorter however, the Thunder batsmen were able to score more freely with a strike rate of 100 from four back of a length deliveries. Alex Ross also hammered Swepson’s only short ball to the deep forward square boundary. Apart from that boundary, Ross was only able to score two singles off the other four balls Swepson bowled to him.

Afghanistan left-arm leg spinner Zahir Khan also bowled well in his debut for the Heat and finished with 0-27 off his four overs. He was the only Heat bowler unable to take a wicket but, like Swepson, Khan leaked just a single boundary and generally had more success with half volley or good length balls. The Thunder batsmen scored 16 runs off 17 balls of that kind, striking less than a run per ball at 94.12.

While Swepson had around a 60-40 ratio of leg spin deliveries to googlies respectively, Khan’s was 50-50. His unorthodox left-arm leg spin proved to be marginally more effective than his googlies with the Thunder batsmen striking at 100 versus 125 against googlies. These numbers from both of Brisbane Heat’s spinners suggest that right-handed Thunder batsmen have weakness against balls spinning into them.

This graph illustrates the effectiveness of the Brisbane Heat spinners when they spun the ball into right-handed Thunder batsmen. The difference in strike rates alone is worth 2.6 runs per over // Viper Cricket Statistics

Together, Khan and Swepson finished with figures of 2-38 off six overs at 6.33 runs per over compared to the team’s four seam bowlers who took 4-134 off 14 overs at 9.57 rpo. The pair also had a strike rate of 18 compared to 21 for the fast bowlers.

Sydney Thunder’s three spinners had near-identical economy and strike rates of 5.83 and 12 in the second innings. However, they finished with figures of 6-70 from 12 overs compared to their seamers who took 3-69 off 7.2 overs at 9.58 rpo and a strike rate of 15.

It is harder for seam bowlers to defend runs at the Gabba because often they are asked to bowl at the shorter boundary from the Vulture Street End. As a result, only four of the 20 overs bowled from the Vulture Street End were by spinners. Facing spin, batsmen from both teams were scoring at 9.50 rpo compared to just 5 rpo to the longer Stanley Street boundary.

Sydney Thunder’s trio of spinners bowled well to apply the brakes and dry up the Heat’s runs. The Heat’s batsmen were only able to score at 4.56 rpo from the nine overs of spin bowled from the Stanley Street End. This would prove to be the difference between the two sides with the Heat losing a wicket for every two overs of spin.

OTHER FACTS & FIGURES

Fielding on the boundary for much of the innings, Sam Heazlett took three great catches and got his hands on the ball a total of 25 times, more than any other Heat player. He also finished the innings with 8.3 touches per dismissal with 12 percent of all his touches resulting in a wicket.
Ferguson and Ross’ 63-run partnership made up 36.6% percent of the Thunder’s final tally of 172. That’s just over one-third of the entire team’s score. Alex Ross’ 30 made up 17.4% of the Thunder’s final score while Callum Ferguson contributed 42.4% with his classy innings of 73 not out off 44 balls.
Sydney Thunder’s spinners Jono Cook, Chris Green and Arjun Nair bowled 9 of the 9.2 overs bowled from the longer Stanley Street End boundary.
Facing spin, batsmen from both teams scored 38 runs off 24 balls at a strike rate of 158.33 (9.5 rpo) hitting towards the shorter Vulture Street End compared to 70 runs off 84 balls at 83.33 (5 rpo) towards the Stanley Street End. The difference in strike rates in worth 4.5 runs per over.

SUMMARY

Bowling at the death has always been an issue for Brisbane Heat’s bowlers, hence the acquisition of death bowling specialist Ben Laughlin during the off-season. This game however, was no exception. The final four overs of Brisbane Heat’s bowling innings undid their hard work early on after they had the Thunder at 5-121 after 16 overs and staring down the barrel of a final score between 150-155. Laughlin himself bowled two of the final four overs and conceded 27 runs at 13.5 rpo to help the Thunder reach 6-172.

Meanwhile, Brisbane Heat’s batsmen struggled to free their arms against the Thunder’s trio of spinners. The Heat only manged to score 6-70 at 5.83 rpo off 12 overs of spin with that run rate dropping further to just 4.56 rpo from the nine overs of spin bowled from the longer Stanley Street End boundary. Facing spin has generally been a weakness for Brisbane Heat’s batsmen and it’s something they will have to work in the future.

More to come…

Big Bash League: Round 2 by the numbers

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The matches keep coming as we dive headfirst into the second round of the 2018-19 Big Bash League season. The tournament continues to be a source of entertainment over the Christmas holidays and provides a stark contrast against the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne.

It is at this point where we start to see which players are in red hot form and which are not at this early stage. With that in mind, here are just five new statistics we are using to evaluate each team’s 18 players:

1) Boundary Rate

Boundary Rate, or balls per boundary, gives us an indication of how often batsman are finding the fence. It allows us to separate monster boundary hitters, such as Chris Lynn, from those who are not regular boundary scorers.

Interestingly enough, as it stands Lynn ranks just 25th on our list of top boundary hitters this season. After struggling to find the rope often at Metricon Stadium, the powerful Queenslander is hitting a boundary every 6.3 balls.

The batsmen at the top of the list are not who you expect, but there is a reason for that. Afghanistan’s Rashid Khan seemingly can do no wrong with ball or bat and tops our boundary rate rankings scoring a boundary every 3 deliveries after hitting two fours and two sixes in Adelaide Strikers’s meagre 88 against Perth Scorchers.

Next on the list is Sydney Thunder fast bowler Daniel Sams with 4 and Brisbane Heat opener Max Bryant with 4.3. Englishman Jos Buttler sits fourth on the list of top run-scorers this season and it is clear from looking at his boundary rate of 4.4 that he is also scoring his runs rapidly. Following a 63 against the Sydney Sixers, Buttler will definitely be one to watch as the tournament progresses.

Englishman Jos Buttler is hitting a boundary every 4.4 balls this season // Herald Sun

2) Bowler Control Index

One of methods baseball analysts use to measure a pitcher’s ability is the power finesse ratio. The power finesse ratio estimates the number of times the pitcher rather than the batter influences the outcome of an at-bat. Therefore, the Bowler Control Index (BCI) calculates the percentage of bowler-controlled deliveries out of the total number of balls bowled.

It should come as no surprise then, that the bowler in control of the majority of their deliveries is Adelaide Strikers’ Rashid Khan (65.3%). What you may not have realised is that David Willey (60) ranks second highest followed by the always economical Peter Siddle (58.3). Stephen O’Keefe (52), Jason Behrendorff (51.4) and Billy Stanlake (50) round out the top six.

If these are the bowlers with the most control, then who are the bowlers with the least control? Interestingly, spin bowlers have less control. Part-timers Ashton Turner (0) and Glenn Maxwell (11.1) rank lowest followed by the Sydney Sixers’ Lloyd Pope (13.3). Ashton Agar and Michael Beer (both 16.7) complete the bottom five.

3) High and Low Conceding Overs

Another statistic being measured by us this season is the number of runs scored off each of the bowlers’ overs. Specifically, how many overs where less than three runs were scored, how many overs where more than six runs were scored and how many overs where more than ten runs were conceded. Used in conjunction with a bowler’s economy rate, this can be used to further analyse how successful a bowler has been at defending runs.

The bowlers with the most overs where less than three runs were scored are Rashid Khan and Jason Behrendorff (both 4). While Khan’s economy rate is better than Behrendorff (3.42 to Behrendorff’s 5.08), the fast bowler is the only player in the tournament to have bowled consecutive overs of less than three runs… Twice.

Stephen O’Keefe (3) also has an economy rate below six as has Jhye Richardson (2) after his incredible spell of 3 for 7 against Adelaide Strikers. Melbourne Renegades’ Jack Wildermuth (2) has bowled the most less than three run overs with an economy over 6.

On the flip side, Michael Neser (6), Tom Curran and Ben Cutting (both 5) have bowled the most overs where more than six runs were scored. Meanwhile, Billy Stanlake has conceded more than ten runs off an over on 6 occasions. That is half of Stanlake’s overs bowled in the tournament so far.

4) Team Wicket Percentage

An adage used in games and military combat states that “the best defence is a good offence”. This is especially true in the case of the bowlers in the Big Bash League. The ability for teams to take wickets and bowl opposition sides out is a crucial skill. It’s why the Perth Scorchers have been so dominant in the early years of the competition and it was a critical part of the Adelaide Strikers’ title-winning season last year.

At this point in the 2018-19 edition of the Big Bash League, the team that has done this most successfully is the Sydney Sixers. The Sixers have taken 85% of all available wickets this season at a strike rate of 14.2. Sydney Thunder have a better strike rate of just 11.2 but, have only taken 75% of available wickets. Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Renegades have also taken 75% of available wickets with strike rates over 15.

Whilst early days just yet, each team’s wicket percentage will become important as the tournament goes on when it becomes critical for teams to close out tight matches.

Sydney Sixers have taken 85% of all available wickets this season at a strike rate of 14.2 // AAP/Steve Christo

5) Net Contribution

Finally, net contribution is being used by us this season to measure a player’s defensive liabilities against offensive output. So far, this statistic has been used as an essential evaluation tool for wicketkeepers, especially in an age where pure glovemen are being cast aside in favour of specialist batsmen who can keep a bit. Net contribution is calculated on a match basis rather than an innings basis because there may be occasions where wicketkeepers don’t bat.

The most productive wicketkeeper so far has been Sydney Thunder’s Jos Buttler. With scores of 20 and 63 in his opening matches and no byes or dropped catches conceded, Buttler has contributed 41.5 runs per match to the Thunder. Alex Carey’s scores of 70, 5 and 11 with one run cost as the result of an overthrow puts him second with 28.3 runs contributed per match.

The worst offender with the gloves this season has been Matthew Wade of the Hobart Hurricanes. Wade’s half-century against the Melbourne Stars put him back into positive figures at least, but a dropped catch off Ben Cutting cost his side an extra 55 runs. This means that, Wade has contributed just 1 run per match.

Although this statistic is only being used to measure wicketkeepers at the moment, there is no reason why it can’t be applied to the other nine fielders. Melbourne Stars’ Nick Larkin has been impressive with the bat scoring 28 and 45 in his first two innings this season. However, Larkin has now dropped three catches this season costing the Stars a total of 71 runs. Just like Wade, Larkin has contributed just 1 run per match to his team.

Nick Larkin drops his third catch of the summer, this time against the Hobart Hurricanes.

Big Bash League: Round 1 by the numbers

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The Big Bash League is back! The first five matches of the 2018-19 edition have already lived up to the hype with big hits, destructive bowling, great catches, confusing run outs and, unfortunately, rain.

As with all the entertainment the BBL provides, there are plenty of numbers to be crunched to figure out which teams and players are hot and who is not after round one. Here are some of the things we learned from the opening round of BBL|08:

1) Batting Second isn’t always the answer

Prior to the invention of Twenty20 cricket, it was a firmly held belief by captains that should you win the toss, you should elect to bat first. In fact, an old observation by former Australian captain Ian Chappell says that “when you win the toss, you bat first nine times out of ten; the tenth time you think about it and bat first anyway”.

Chappell’s statement seems to have been inverted in recent seasons of the BBL with most franchise captains believing that batting second i.e. chasing, results in more wins, more often. In BBL|06 for example, twenty-seven out of 34 teams that won the toss opted to bowl. The seven who decided to bat first all regretted it, losing every single time.

However after the first five matches this season, three teams have won the match having batted first. The proportion of wins batting first to batting second sits at a 60-40 per cent split, respectively.

What’s more interesting to note is that only Moises Henriques of the Sydney Sixers elected to bat first. The other two teams – Sydney Thunder and Hobart Hurricanes – were both sent in to bat by the opposition captain.

It’s safe to assume that for now teams and captains will continue to send their opponents in to bat first, but it’s clear that setting a decent score and subsequently defending it is not a bizarre notion.

Chris Lynn’s whirlwind cameo of 33 came to abrupt end courtesy of Peter Siddle // AAP, ‘Gabba

2) Catches really do win matches

It’s one of the oldest adages in the cricket playbook. Catches win matches. In the first five matches played, this statement has been proven true on multiple occasions.

Jake Lehmann was lucky in the sense that when he dropped Brisbane Heat’s Max Bryant in the tenth over of the tournament opener at the ‘Gabba, the 17-year-old was caught by Rashid Khan the following delivery.

Ironically, it was Bryant himself who was less fortunate when he grassed an opportunity off the bat of Jake Weatherald when the opener was on just 1.

Weatherald added just 16 more runs to his overall tally, which may not seem like much. However when you consider that the Heat bowlers took the run chase to the final over, an additional 16 runs may have been too big a mountain for the defending champions to climb.

Another example was Ashton Agar’s dropped catch of Jordan Silk at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Agar dropped a simple return catch in the ninth over when Silk was on just 17. Silk went on to score 67 not out, a net cost of 50 runs, as part of a 124-run stand with Daniel Hughes that proved to be the difference between Sydney Sixers and Perth Scorchers.

Oddly, the highest net cost of the tournament so far – 55 runs – was still not enough for Brisbane Heat to overcome Hobart Hurricanes on the Gold Coast. Matthew Wade grassed a chance gloved by Ben Cutting down the leg side when the Heat all-rounder was on 3. Cutting went on to score his maiden BBL fifty and nearly proved the difference between the two teams.

3) Melbourne Stars are the worst offenders in the field

Melbourne Stars finished at the bottom of the ladder in the competition last season. It can be assumed that people weren’t expecting miracles from the relatively inexperienced team. At this point, there have been twelve catches dropped in the field. The Stars dropped three catches against their green shirt-wearing counterpart – Sydney Thunder – in Canberra.

Not only that, but it was Sydney Thunder’s Daniel Sams that survived all three opportunities. Adding to the woes was the fact that two of the three were dropped by the same person. Nick Larkin had two opportunities to dismiss Sams at long on each within an over of each other.

The first was in the air for a long time, but Larkin didn’t sprint in and was forced to vainly dive full length to try and catch it. He also misjudged the second chance and ran in a touch too far before jumping up with one hand only for the ball to burst through and reach the boundary. Larkin actually had an extra two or three metres behind him he could have used.

Larkin wasn’t the only Stars player struggling in the field. We observed Marcus Stoinis mis-field the ball three times, costing his side three runs. He was able to save one run later in the evening to earn back some respect.

Elsewhere, Jackson Coleman also mis-fielded the final delivery of Michael Beer’s opening over. Hit powerfully by Shane Watson, Coleman missed the ball at mid off and it raced to the boundary, costing his side four runs. In his defence, he got an awkward bounce that went straight through him.

Nick Larkin misjudges a second chance and has to jump up with one hand // Channel Seven

4) Relying on one batsman’s contributions will not win matches

Cricket already has numerous metrics which can be used to evaluate a batsman’s performances. Offensive rating systems that are designed to provide a better insight into a batsman’s ability can be found everywhere as different ways to evaluate players. In this way, it is implied that any batsman can be maniplulated to look better than they are depending on the rating system used.

One of the most relevant offensive rating systems, we believe, is the percentage of completed innings. This statistic provides us with the percentage of runs a player scores out of the team’s total. Using this, we can determine the players who are of the most value to their respective sides when compared to players from other teams.

Adelaide Strikers made 147 runs in their chase of Brisbane Heat’s meagre 146. Wicketkeeper Alex Carey scored 70 runs off 46 balls striking at 152.17. Anyone can see that Carey’s contribution proved to be the difference between the two teams however, his 70 runs equates to 49.3% of the Strikers’ final tally. That’s nearly half.

This highlights Carey’s importance to the Strikers’ batting order and poses a problem for the rest of the Strikers’ batsmen should Carey be selected for the upcoming ODI series against India beginning on 12 January.

D’Arcy Short was another batsman to score a half-century during the first five matches, also against Brisbane. Short’s 67 off 52 equates to 45.6% of the Hurricanes’ final score of 159. There’s no doubt that Short will also be in the frame for ODI selection. The second-highest contribution for the Hurricanes was 17% courtesy of Ben McDermott and his 25 off 16.

Sydney Thunder scored 181 runs off their 20 overs against Melbourne Stars, the highest of the tournament so far. Jason Sangha and Daniel Sams contributed 36.4 and 19.7 per cent of their team’s total, respectively, during their 77-run partnership in Canberra. That may be less than Carey and Short, but they also had valuable help from their team-mates.

Shane Watson contributed 12.7 per cent at the top of the order with Englishmen Jos Buttler and Joe Root contributing 11.6 and 10.4 per cent, respectively. Therefore, Sydney Thunder batted the best as one cohesive unit, as opposed to the Strikers and Hurricanes who relied heavily on individual performances of their players. This is going to be an important factor when it comes to crunch time later in the season.

D’Arcy Short contributed 45.6% of Hobart Hurricanes’ total of 159 against Brisbane Heat // AAP

5) Scoring consistently earns big runs

For a team called the Sixers, the Sydney-based franchise achieved this feat just three times during their opening match against the Perth Scorchers at Sydney Cricket Ground.

That being said, Daniel Hughes and Jordan Silk’s 124-run partnership was not only critical to the team’s success, but it was also scored at an incredibly fast rate. Hughes’ strike rate of 140.91 was fractionally better than Silk’s 136.73 and the pair were both striking quicker than the team’s overall strike rate of 133.33, but these numbers only tell half the story.

Hughes faced 44 balls on his way to 62 and scored at least one run off 34 of them. That’s 77.3%. His team-mate Jordan Silk was even better and scored off 43 out of his 49 balls faced during his innings of 67 not out. Silk’s scoring shot percentage of 87.8% is the highest out of any players in the league that have faced at least 10 deliveries at this point.

By comparison, Alex Carey scored off 67.4% of his deliveries faced during his innings of 70 against Brisbane Heat, Jason Sangha scored off 77.8% and Daniel Sams scored off 80.9% against Melbourne Stars. Melbourne Stars’ Nick Larkin is the next closest to Silk, scoring off 84.6% of his deliveries faced during his innings of 28 against Sydney Thunder in the rain-reduced match at Manuka Oval.

Sydney Sixers may have only hit three sixes this season however, the team’s scoring shot percentage of 77.5% is also significantly greater than any other team in the league. It’s a wonder why the Sixers are so often overlooked simply because they lack “big name” players. If the Sixers continue this scoring rate, they may yet become a dark horse when teams begin the scramble for a finals berth.

6) Dropped catches are costly, but can also be very odd

Cricket statistics can not only tell us which players are scoring quickly or taking the most wickets. They can, at times, be very odd. This BBL season, we have been tracking a range of factors around dropped catches such as who has dropped a catch, where they were fielding, what stage or over of the match and what the batsman’s score was when they were dropped.

We mentioned before how Ashton Agar dropped a return catch off Jordan Silk when the latter was on just 17. D’Arcy Short was also survived a caught and bowled chance during his innings against Brisbane Heat. Short came skipping down the ground and smashed the ball right past Mitchell Swepson’s left. While it may have been too difficult a chance for Swepson to grip, surviving a caught and bowled chance is not the only thing Silk and Short have in common.

Both were dropped in the ninth over with each their respective teams at least two wickets down for 56 runs. Furthermore, both players went on to score 67, each of their teams set their opponents a target of at least 160 runs and went on to win the game by at least 15 runs.

That may not be interesting, relevant, or more importantly that funny to some, but it certainly is peculiar. The truth really is more strange than fiction.